*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.
Mike Papantonio: There’s less than one week to go before the 2020 election and we’re seeing record numbers of early voters, especially among battleground state voters. What are the final polls saying and what do they mean for this election coming up? David, let me ask you, I’ve got David Lamb with me. Of course, he’s been a regular on this show talking about the polling, break it down. National polls, state polls. Everybody gets, you know, they, they don’t understand that the state polls really matter. That the battleground states really do matter.
David Lamb: Yeah. That, that’s where the race is going to be won and loss. It’s hard, as I stand here, here we are a week out and this may give some Democrat voters PTSD to four years ago, but it’s hard to imagine a path where we do not have a new president because the, the, the, the hole is deep for Trump to have to dig out of. He is making headway. Now in the past, he’s lost a point, Biden has lost a point every week now going on three weeks. So, but the, the deal with that is it’s gone from 10 to nine to eight. So Trump is running out of time. Nationally, the lead is right around eight points right now.
Mike Papantonio: Wow, okay.
David Lamb: in, in the battleground states, like, like you said, that those are the States that it’s just so crucial. And again, there’s some slippage there about a point that Biden has lost over the last week in, in those key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, Florida, Texas, but the fact that Florida, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina.
Mike Papantonio: Are in play.
David Lamb: Are even in play it’s, it’s, it’s just crazy.
Mike Papantonio: Were they in play in the Clinton election, 2016, were they in play there?
David Lamb: Yeah. So Trump won some States that, a blue wall, there was supposed to be a blue wall in the Michigan and Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, you know, that middle section of the state, that Trump won those States. So, so Clinton did do well there, but not nearly though, Pap, to the numbers of what Biden is. I mean, some of these numbers, in Michigan Biden has an eight point lead. Minnesota, a seven point lead. Trump has a narrow lead in Ohio. Biden has a six point lead in, in Wisconsin, much larger than Clinton was ever able to get.
Mike Papantonio: Okay. So, so these people who went to bed during the, during the Clinton Trump race and woke up and said, oh my God, what just happened?
David Lamb: Right.
Mike Papantonio: They’re, that’s likely to be the, that’s less likely to be the scenario here.
David Lamb: It is, for a number of reasons. You know, it all, it always, it hinges on who turns out, right? Many Republicans and conservatives and Trump folks are just swearing that the numbers in Michigan are wrong. The numbers in Ohio and Pennsylvania are wrong.
Mike Papantonio: Based on what, based on what? How do they.
David Lamb: Internal polling.
Mike Papantonio: Yeah.
David Lamb: And also they, the Trump folks keep pointing to the boat rallies, the truck rallies, the crowds that show up at his rallies.
Mike Papantonio: Well, talk about that a little bit. They are pretty spectacular and you go, but does that really mean anything this late in the game? Don’t you?
David Lamb: Yeah, he really is running out of time. I mean, the fact of the matter is Trump has run a terrible campaign. Trump has been stuck at 40, 42%. That’s what got him elected. He has not expanded that base at all and that goes against all the conventional wisdom of politics. You have to grow your base. You have to go beyond those, those folks who love Trump and the evangelical base, but he has lost with seniors. He’s lost with those, you know, suburban women and all so many different groups.
Mike Papantonio: Is there any truth to the fact that he’s also losing with elderly kind of voters? I mean, you hear two sides of that argument.
David Lamb: Yeah. There, there, there is a great deal, again, you’re, you’re trusting the polling. We’re going to find out if that’s, that’s a smart move or not. And one example in the state of Georgia, voters 65 plus, more voters 65 plus in the state of Georgia have already voted than voted entirely in 2016. And it is believed that by six to seven, you know, 60 to 70% of those are voting for Biden. That’s an indication that president Trump has lost those 65 plus voters that, that really turned out for him.
Mike Papantonio: I mean, so you go through all the demographics, African-Americans, he’s made inroads.
David Lamb: He has.
Mike Papantonio: But not significant. Latino, he’s made inroads, but not significant. Younger voters, he’s never made inroads, nor will he ever.
David Lamb: He won’t.
Mike Papantonio: Elderly, I still think is an issue certainly in places like Florida and Arizona.
David Lamb: Right.
Mike Papantonio: New Mexico. So we, that’s still kind of up in the air, isn’t it?
David Lamb: It is. It’s going to be interesting afterward to see how it turns out, because, you know, it was so shocking in 2016, I think folks are just they’re, they’re, they don’t want to pull that trigger.
Mike Papantonio: Yeah.
David Lamb: But if you look at the numbers, Pap, it’s going to be very difficult. And, and if these numbers are wrong with a lead like this, you know, lock the windows for all the polls and all the polling organizations.
Mike Papantonio: How would ever, yeah, how would we ever even regard polling as being significant?
David Lamb: Yeah. Because a 10 point lead, you know, eight to 10 point lead this close.
Mike Papantonio: So right now we have Trump virtually everywhere. There’s, what’s he doing five rallies a day?
David Lamb: He’s, yes.
Mike Papantonio: Are we seeing any movement from the rallies, even? I mean, it seems like a desperate, desperate effort.
David Lamb: But you know what’s different about this election and four years ago and, and this goes to your conversation with Farron, in 2016, all of those rallies were carried live. Do you remember that? They were live on CNN and live on Fox and everywhere. Now really they’re only live on Fox. So they’re not carried as much as they were, but the crowds are, they, they are massive. And, and something has to be said for that. I wonder though, is it excitement or is this a Trump farewell tour and folks want to.
Mike Papantonio: Say goodbye. See you later.
David Lamb: Yeah. Thanks for the memories.
Mike Papantonio: How about early, early voting, read, read anything into that?
David Lamb: It’s just crazy, isn’t it?
Mike Papantonio: Numbers.
David Lamb: So there were 120 million votes cast in 2016. By the end of this week, there will have been 80 million votes cast early. So depending on the turnout, it’s going to be some historic numbers. You are seeing some real surges in African-American voters and the millennial voters who traditionally, oftentimes have not turned out as much. There, there are signals and signs that those two bases and some of those bases that really have to turn out for Biden are showing up. The question that’s out there is, you know, Trump has kind of been anti the whole, you know, the whole COVID thing is the conspiracy. Are, are the Trump voters waiting until election day? And will they be so jazzed in any of this?
Mike Papantonio: Yeah. I’m not buying that.
David Lamb: Again, I repeat, it’s hard for me to imagine a way, a scenario, and I’ve tried to run the numbers in a number of different ways where Trump’s going to pull this out.
Mike Papantonio: David Lamb, thank you for joining me. Okay.
David Lamb: Thank you.