According to election forecaster Moody’s Analytics, a Democrat will win the White House in 2016 by a narrow margin, reported The Hill. The election model has a perfect success rate of predicting who will win the White House.
According to Moody’s Analytics, the Democratic presidential nominee will win 270 electoral votes next year, barely winning over the 268 electoral votes won by the Republican nominee. Moody’s has a perfect record of predicting political elections since 1980, and it predicted precisely how many electoral votes Obama won in 2012.
Moody’s is an economic-based model that measures the economic and political climates in each of the 50 states. The most important economic factor it focuses on is income growth two years prior to the elections. Income growth favors the incumbent party, in this case the Democrats. However, there’s a 50% chance that the incumbent party will win in the swing states. Other mitigating factors play a larger role in who wins in swing states. One factor in particular is voter fatigue, which tends to work against the incumbent party.
If history is an indicator, America is looking at another close election with a Democrat winning the White House. Hopefully, that continues. The big question, however, is which Democrat will it be?